Why Theresa May’s approach to Brexit just might change.
One thing we learnt about Theresa May as Prime Minister is the value she placed on what she considered as her “duty” to the country.
For the past 2 years, as Prime Minister of our United Kingdom, she has seen her own duty as being one that will ultimately deliver an exit from the European Union, as per the 2016 referendum result.
Mrs May herself had been a reluctant remainer. She was slow out the traps to declare her allegiance towards a side – but eventually chose to advocate for remain on the basis of her assessments of security risks that would face the United Kingdom in the event we were to Leave the EU – at that time she was of course Home Secretary and her duty lay with the security of the United Kingdom.
Even then though, her refusal to involve herself in the day to day running of the campaign got under the skin of the campaign chiefs, especially that of Craig Oliver.
But now – things have changed for Theresa May.
For the first time in this process, and for the first time in almost 10 years, the former Prime Minister’s only duty is to that of her constituents, those in Maidenhead, who according to the House of Commons Library estimates, voted to Remain by approximated 55%. A figure that beats the U.K. % to leave that drove her to advocate such a hardline exit from Europe.
So the question is, what will Theresa May do now? She is on the backbenches, and she is clear that she intends to stay there for a while at least.
In her last PMQs she avoided questions of how she would proceed in the days of PM Boris, and whether she would prevent a no deal exit – but at that point she hadn’t yet been to visit the Queen, and she hadn’t yet officially ended her duties as Prime Minister.
Now that she is just “Theresa May MP” – a woman famously dedicated to her constituency, who had to be prevented from leafleting alone on a Saturday afternoon in Maidenhead while holding one of the great offices of state – will she pivot on herself and actually stand up for the will of the people of her much beloved constituency?
It seems believable.
A detail of the conservative leadership election that was largely missed was that Theresa May was believed to have cast her vote in favour of Rory Stewart.
Now, he had defended her loyally for months while many of her other ministers threw her under the bus – and he had excelled as a junior minister and cabinet secretary. But she of all people understood the importance of the next leader’s Brexit policy, and Rory Stewart’s was to avoid a No Deal.
Beyond that, she has since been seen enjoying down time with David Gauke, who was Stewart’s strongest advocate and an ardent “no no deal”er – as well as Mrs May’s former Justice Secretary.
As the weeks go on I believe we will see Theresa May ingrain herself further into this group of Tory MPs who have been such a thorn in her own side through her premiership – but now she has the company of her former cabinet ministers to support her.
Boris lost a whole host of MPs from the payroll who are likely to now turn and vote against him now that they do not have the responsibility of supporting their government.
The arithmetic has changed entirely. Theresa May, Phillip Hammond, David Liddington and all those other former government secretaries and ministers, who supported her path to a hard line exit now, no longer have to vote alongside the government whip, and the indications are they won’t be doing so voluntarily, at least not when it comes to Brexit.
