Our Next PM: it’s still a crowded field.

As Tory MPs take to Committee Room 14 for the third time in a week this afternoon, the number of candidates battling for the keys to Number 10 will again be whittled down by one.

Unlike the previous ballots there is no threshold, it’s a race to avoid the bottom spot and elimination.

In yesterday’s vote of Tory parliamentarians, Sajid Javid scraped through into last place, beating Dominic “I will prorogue Parliament to push through no deal” Raab out of the competition – who no doubt is preparing for a few years on the back benches. He could have dodged the overcrowded race and rowed in behind Boris or Gove, aligning himself perfectly for a top cabinet position and perhaps changing the outcome entirely but that’s for another time.

Boris Johnson remains streams ahead of his rivals, picking up 126 votes from fellow MPs in Tuesday’s ballot, 12 more than he had in the first round.

The big surprise, for some, would have been Rory Stewart leapfrogging Javid and Raab, picking up 37 supporters on his way to clip at the heals of one of the initial big contenders, Michael Gove, who scraped up an extra 4 votes this time around increasing his tally to 41.

It wasn’t necessarily all bad news for Gove given his current main opponent to face off against Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, failed to distance himself. Instead the gap between the former Vote Leave frontman and the Foreign Secretary narrowed to just 5 votes.

What we know about Tory Leadership contests, however, would suggest that anything can still happen – Michael Portillo and Ken Clarke will happily testify to that.

Leaked WhatsApp messages last night suggest that Stewart is unlikely to pick up any backers from Raab’s dismayed supporters – instead it is probable that they will split between the top three candidates, with the majority heading to Boris.

The people that could alter today’s vote are the Tory MPs that are currently backing the Home Secretary. They will have to assess whether they think their man is likely to pick up any more votes, because otherwise he’s straight out of the running and their voice in this round will be drowned out.

Instead, the sensible option on the table is for them to join another camp. Micheal Gove and Jeremy Hunt are closely level pegging and any movement from Javid’s supporters could shift the balance in favour of one or the other, whilst also distancing them from Rory Stewart.

Alternatively, they could lend their vote to Stewart and with enough backing he could overtake Gove, or perhaps even Jeremy Hunt. If for example 10 of Javid’s supports head to the International Development Secretary, and then rest get behind Michael Gove, both would over take Hunt.

Of course, Saj’s supporters may stand by their man and the results would probably mirror those we saw yesterday – leaving the Home Secretary at the bottom of the race anyway, which seems a bit pointless really.

The one hope they could have is that they’ll be able to bring a few votes over to their team in a bid to beat the numbers supporting Stewart. They are certainly briefing that they’re gaining votes for Raab’s camp – but whether that transfers over to this afternoon’s ballot is still to be seen. It would seem an odd move for these MPs to jump on the trailing contender, especially when his views are clearly askew from those of the Former Brexit Secretary. Unfortunately for them, his momentum has been far bigger than there’s, and if anything he’s likely to be the one picking up some extra backers.

The important thing to note about Stewart, is the overwhelming majority of his backers are undeclared, meaning it’s hard to nail down just who will switch to his team. This gives weight to the argument that he could transfer his numbers to Gove if he is knocked out in this round – given there are surely some big names among them that Gove would want to pick up. His numbers have continued to rise, but even if he has hit his ceiling of support, Javid has to lift his or it will make little difference.

Regardless of what way they choose to go, it’s all eyes on Team Saj today.

Keep up to date with the most recent declarations at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-1SIgTwfKZXIir8EA5lIlt53GxwW1otdThV9JMcQ5Is